Should you make and use existential risk estimates? How?

Marie Reay 2.02

12:00 pm - 1:00 pm


We must decide how much to prioritize reducing existential and global catastrophic risks, how much to prioritize various specific risks, and how best to reduce them. To make such decisions, to what extent and in what ways should we invest in making, aggregating, and using forecasts of risk levels and how various actions would affect risk levels? Michael will discuss arguments for and against investing in such efforts, along with challenges and best practices.

This talk is informed by Michael’s work building the most comprehensive (to his knowledge) databases of existential risk estimates and nuclear risk estimates, co-running a nuclear risk forecasting tournament, and advising forecasting organizations.